煤(mei)电同(tong)(tong)(tong)增促进营(ying)运(yun)额(e)增强，注意微(wei)电网(wang)及修建选煤(mei)厂(chang)(chang)，恢(hui)复(fu)“定(ding)(ding)增”评定(ding)(ding)。总(zong)部(bu)(bu)上架2023 企业年(nian)(nian)度报(bao)告及2024 年(nian)(nian)赛季报(bao)，2023 年(nian)(nian)总(zong)部(bu)(bu)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)营(ying)运(yun)薪资(zi)净(jing)(jing)使收(shou)(shou)(shou)入301.2 亿(yi)美(mei)金，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)-15.3%；完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)归(gui)母(mu)净(jing)(jing)毛(mao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)益来源(yuan)率(lv)润(run)(run)22.7 亿(yi)美(mei)金，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)+18.7%。另外2023Q4 完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)营(ying)运(yun)薪资(zi)净(jing)(jing)使收(shou)(shou)(shou)入81.4 亿(yi)美(mei)金，相比以(yi)往的增长率(lv)+1.8%，完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)归(gui)母(mu)净(jing)(jing)毛(mao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)益来源(yuan)率(lv)润(run)(run)6.4 亿(yi)美(mei)金，相比以(yi)往的增长率(lv)+5.0%。2024Q1总(zong)部(bu)(bu)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)营(ying)运(yun)薪资(zi)净(jing)(jing)使收(shou)(shou)(shou)入73.2 亿(yi)美(mei)金，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)+3.6%，完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)归(gui)母(mu)净(jing)(jing)毛(mao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)益来源(yuan)率(lv)润(run)(run)4.7 亿(yi)美(mei)金，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)+11.4%。要(yao)满足到2024 年(nian)(nian)至今(jin)为止(zhi)行业煤(mei)价(jia)向下(xia)，大(da)家上涨(zhang)2024-2025 年(nian)(nian)纯利益預測并(bing)添(tian)加2026 年(nian)(nian)纯利益預測，再(zai)创新高(gao)2024-2026 年(nian)(nian)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)归(gui)母(mu)净(jing)(jing)毛(mao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)益来源(yuan)率(lv)润(run)(run)24.1/26.0/27.1 亿(yi)美(mei)金（2024-2025 过年(nian)(nian)前数值25.1/26.6 亿(yi)美(mei)金），去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)+6.4%/+8.0%/+4.0%；EPS 为0.11/0.12/0.12 元，对应着现如今(jin)股(gu)价(jia)下(xia)跌PE 为12.2/11.3/10.8 倍，总(zong)部(bu)(bu)煤(mei)电同(tong)(tong)(tong)质自主盈利模式，助力器营(ying)运(yun)额(e)的增长、修建选煤(mei)厂(chang)(chang)规(gui)划时，微(wei)电网(wang)企业转(zhuan)型进步发展进步直得看好(hao)，恢(hui)复(fu)“定(ding)(ding)增”评定(ding)(ding)。

煤炭产销改善及电力业务增长带动业绩改善，海则滩建设加快煤炭业务：公司2023 年煤炭业务产销量出现增长，原煤产销量分别为1297/1299万吨，同比+17.6%/+18.0%；精煤产销量分别为329/328 万吨，同比-2.3%/-3.3%。

2024Q1 精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)立(li)(li)即减(jian)少(shao)，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)焦(jiao)销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)对应(ying)为(wei)(wei)240/237 亿(yi)(yi)(yi)立(li)(li)方米左(zuo)右(you)，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)+0.5%/-1.8%；精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)对应(ying)为(wei)(wei)67/62 亿(yi)(yi)(yi)立(li)(li)方米左(zuo)右(you)，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)+8.6%/+7.4%。因(yin)此(ci)2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三第第二第上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度市扬煤(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)下滑，2024Q1 大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)焦(jiao)的(de)保(bao)险项目(mu)纯利额(e)(e)(e)为(wei)(wei)12.3 5亿(yi)(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)-27.4%。大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)单位隶属山东亿(yi)(yi)(yi)华海(hai)则滩(tan)选(xuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)厂(chang)顶目(mu)靠近山东省(sheng)榆横矿山，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)种基本(ben)为(wei)(wei)优(you)越化工(gong)(gong)机械用(yong)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)及和动力煤(mei)(mei)(mei)，环境资(zi)源(yuan)储量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)11.45 亿(yi)(yi)(yi)立(li)(li)方米，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)发高(gao)烧量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)6500 大卡上(shang)。该顶目(mu)估计2026年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三第第二第上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度配备出(chu)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)环境，2027 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)达产(chan)。要根据大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)算卦，按2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)市扬年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)初阶段算卦可(ke)做到年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)营(ying)业执照营(ying)收(shou)约(yue)90 5亿(yi)(yi)(yi)、净投资(zi)回报(bao)空间(jian)率润(run)约(yue)44 5亿(yi)(yi)(yi)。供电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)保(bao)险项目(mu)：2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)供电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)保(bao)险项目(mu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)升本(ben)减(jian)纯利额(e)(e)(e)相(xiang)(xiang)关系(xi)(xi)数(shu)减(jian)少(shao)，2024Q1 发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)剩余(yu)剩余(yu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)立(li)(li)即高(gao)增。2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)赢得丹阳中(zhong)鑫华海(hai)控(kong)住权(quan)，新曾加(jia)(jia)的(de)安(an)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)系(xi)(xi)统系(xi)(xi)统出(chu)水(shui)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)20 成(cheng)(cheng)千(qian)上(shang)万(wan)的(de)瓦(wa)(wa)，大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)用(yong)用(yong)供电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)股(gu)(gu)份总安(an)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)系(xi)(xi)统系(xi)(xi)统出(chu)水(shui)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)可(ke)达918 成(cheng)(cheng)千(qian)上(shang)万(wan)的(de)瓦(wa)(wa)、持(chi)股(gu)(gu)总安(an)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)系(xi)(xi)统系(xi)(xi)统出(chu)水(shui)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)可(ke)达400 成(cheng)(cheng)千(qian)上(shang)万(wan)的(de)瓦(wa)(wa)。2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)预(yu)购(gou)(gou)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)剩余(yu)剩余(yu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)对应(ying)为(wei)(wei)373.5/353.9 亿(yi)(yi)(yi)kW时，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)+4.2%/+4.1%，2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)市扬煤(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)下滑致使大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)供电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)资(zi)金相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)-11.2%，纯利额(e)(e)(e)率曾加(jia)(jia)17.6 个(ge)月环比(bi)(bi)至10.7%，投资(zi)回报(bao)力大幅度的(de)减(jian)少(shao)。2024Q1大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)预(yu)购(gou)(gou)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)剩余(yu)剩余(yu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)对应(ying)为(wei)(wei)100.0/94.7 亿(yi)(yi)(yi)kW时，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)+14.2%/14.2%，我们都估计大子(zi)装(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)工(gong)(gong)厂(chang)2024Q1 每月销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)业绩(ji)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)减(jian)少(shao)基本(ben)在于预(yu)购(gou)(gou)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)剩余(yu)剩余(yu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)关系(xi)(xi)数(shu)优(you)化。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，能源转型可期

迅速合理布局全(quan)钒液(ye)流(liu)(liu)锂(li)电(dian)全(quan)品牌链，工厂(chang)存(cun)(cun)储企业战略转型迅速真正落(luo)地。（1）全(quan)钒液(ye)流(liu)(liu)锂(li)电(dian)的(de)发展项目基(ji)本(ben)建筑(zhu)：工厂(chang)隶属张家(jia)港德泰存(cun)(cun)储装(zhuang)配有(you)限总(zong)部英文工厂(chang)1,000MW 全(quan)钒液(ye)流(liu)(liu)锂(li)电(dian)存(cun)(cun)储装(zhuang)配手(shou)工制造基(ji)地面(mian)积（五期(qi)300MW）早已于2023 年(nian)6 月(yue)底破土动工基(ji)本(ben)建筑(zhu)，保(bao)守(shou)估计(ji)在(zai)2024 年(nian)4第一季(ji)度投运，保(bao)守(shou)估计(ji)在(zai)五期(qi)的(de)发展项目达月(yue)子占我过的(de)市场占有(you)率10%。（2）钒矿选冶制造线基(ji)本(ben)建筑(zhu)：

单(dan)位所(suo)在敦煌市汇宏(hong)化工(gong)(gong)的开发是有限的单(dan)位6000 吨/年高(gao)(gao)纯五(wu)空气腐(fu)蚀(shi)二钒选冶出(chu)产制造线(xian)（新一期(qi)3000 吨/年）已经(jing)和2023 年6 月底施工(gong)(gong)修(xiu)建(jian)，均值2024 年长久度开工(gong)(gong)。截止(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)到到当(dang)今为(wei)止(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，该产线(xian)是中(zhong)国(guo)我们国(guo)家单(dan)条(tiao)总量(liang)很大(da)、机(ji)械化程度较最高(gao)(gao)的人、场景最友爱的石煤(mei)提钒出(chu)产制造线(xian)，达生完孩(hai)子(zi)后的将占中(zhong)国(guo)我们国(guo)家石煤(mei)提钒20%上下餐饮市场所(suo)有权(quan)(quan)。而且单(dan)位经(jing)过股份权(quan)(quan)企业并购提供了湖北省石台县(xian)龙岭钒矿矿山开采权(quan)(quan)，延长了均值水平0.93%、职称(cheng)评审根本(ben)134.74亿(yi)吨的五(wu)空气腐(fu)蚀(shi)二钒能源(yuan)量(liang)，到当(dang)今为(wei)止(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)单(dan)位五(wu)空气腐(fu)蚀(shi)二钒能源(yuan)量(liang)满足158.89 亿(yi)吨。

风险提示：煤价下跌超预期；煤炭产量不及预期；储能转型不及预期。